The Misguided Neo-Prohibition Movement
Since the beginning of the Republic, we’ve been debating the right way to deal with alcohol. Jefferson thought wine would civilize America (I happen to agree with him). Washington thought whiskey was more authentically American and wryly (not rye-ly) named his dogs Tipsy and Drunkard. Teetotalers were rare because water wasn’t safe to drink.
A century-ish later water safety improved and an unlikely alliance of Christians, Post WWI anti-Germans, and women finally getting the political power they deserved formed around a single issue passing the 18th Amendment (aka Prohibition). This coalition argued “alcohol was a shadow over the home”. Propaganda fueled popular opinions started to believe that mental health and crime would improve with the banning of alcohol. With the example of history, we know that none of these things came true and instead a pile of unintended consequences emerged: the Mafia took hold of major cities, crime increased, tax revenues fell and weirdly Walgreen’s expanded from 14 to 500 stores selling “medicinal whiskey”. America’s thirst was again quenched with prohibitions repeal 14 years later when we sobered up in the great depression.
Mark Twain said, “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” That’s the way I feel as I watch the legislative bombardment underway trying to use taxation and regulation to social engineer using similar arguments to the temperance movement. While they may not fuel organized crime, they are likely to have unintended consequences.
The Attack of the Beaker Brigade
In ’24, Oregon established a well-intended taskforce to justify a way to tax alcohol more aggressively after a failed effort to increase taxes twelvefold last year. This on top of a recent ad from the Oregon Health Authority conflating drinking beer at home in a football game with bad parenting. Washington is considering a law to reduce drunk driving thresholds knowing that it will likely harm restaurants. The beaker brigade is taking a technocratic (can you spell ethanol?) approach to solving a problem that is distinctively cultural and economic.
With a more constructive approach, they likely would achieve similar goals and not anger, distract so many citizens and threaten the jobs of so many.
Lower Alcohol Cultural Moment
Consumer trends have temperance winds at their back. Only 62% of young adults drink at all versus 72% 20 years ago. We know from history that if you don’t drink in your 20s, you are not likely to drink later in life. Why can’t we be a cultural exemplar for how to celebrate and savor a life that rich with moderation, low alcohol, or no alcohol?
This approach addresses a great point Scott Galloway made in his newsletter recently. He said, “The decline in alcohol consumption has many positives. But it also means a decline in the rites of passage and communal bonding that alcohol historically facilitated.”
And we are the perfect place to create great food and beverage experiences that get people together. Full-service restaurants are finally growing again in Portland. Promisingly, the number of restaurants open in Portland are an eye popping 16% up from pre-covid. Food businesses are a canary in the coal mine for urban vitality and we should be doubling down to encourage with an emphasis on innovation in both alcohol and non-alcohol.
There is so much cool going on in the non-alcohol world. You don’t have to denigrate alcohol to celebrate non-alc. Takibi and Epif have travel worthy non-alc cocktails. Suckerpunch is getting national attention as an altogether non-alc bar.
Chef Gregory Gourdet beautifully welcomes guest to Sousòl’s with “thoughtful Zero-Proof and Non-Alcoholic drinks with just as much intention as our full-spirit offerings.”
Wilderton imbues their 0% botanical spirits with an artisan quality that inpires. Shelley at For Bitter for Worse is turning heads with her soulful 0% innovations. Altitude is creating buzz in Central Oregon with their innovative energy drinks. These are just the tip of the iceberg of the no-alc innovators in our communities. We can do better than Liquid Death.
For those of us thinking more about longevity, we don’t have let the beaker brigade at the WHO define ethanol like household bleach; a poison which should be avoided as a chemical toxin. Yes, we all took high school chemistry, but this is about choices, culture, and community.
There is ample evidence that people can live long rich lives punctuated with moderate enjoyment of wine, beer or spirits. Blue Zones boast the longest lives in the world filled with active social connections, daily activity and 1–2 glasses of alcohol a day. I also nod vigorously listening to Peter Attia (Author of bestselling book Outlive) extol his choice to appreciate quality and moderation despite a comprehensive understanding of the chemical attributes of ethanol.
When the winds are at your back, put your sail up. You don’t need to try to sink the other boats.
Economic Buzzkill
As importantly, the sad part of these policymaking trends is that they create a perception of negative business climate. Just like well-intended progressive bureaucracies exacerbated negative trends during covid, these policy recommendations will exacerbate existing challenges such as 52% of Oregonians perceiving that the business climate is getting worse next year. And we know perception becomes reality when it comes to business climate.
Oregon wineries, breweries and distilleries should be collaborating to get locals back into their establishments and getting more people travelling to Oregon for the experiences which Oregon and Washington do phenomenally well. Oregon is the state where the wineries in collaboration with Governor Barbara Roberts decided to tax themselves to promote a remarkable communitarian industry that now has a $7 billion impact on the American economy.
Oregon Brewers collaborated with the state allow to innovate the now iconic brewpub. This probusiness innovation led to a business that generates roughly a $9 billion impact nationally.
Ryan Reynolds thinks Oregon is a great place to make gin. You can extrapolate.
Instead of collaborating to rebound and grow to fight the headwinds of national 1–5% declines in all these industries, these proposals exacerbate natural conflicts that emerge as industries grow and become more diverse. Battles emerge about who’s going to pay for lobbying to fight the regulatory assault for sure. More insidiously though, these proposals fuel infighting between the large and the small, the urban vs. the rural and the premium vs. the value-oriented leaders in the industry.
Distress triggers defensive thinking and these proposals are creating massive distress in these industries. It cannot be underestimated the insidious nature of what the policymakers like view as “small” encroachments on these industry’s ability to collaborate.
Health and Safety
This legislation is intended to improve very real issues with addiction, unsafe driving, and a broken healthcare system. I don’t want to have alternative solutions. I just write to highlight the parallels with the pre-prohibition period and likely similar effectiveness.
We are in a period of falsely believing that expanded regulation and taxation of alcohol businesses as a solution to these intractable social problems. They will not solve the problems. Instead, they will harm a bright spot in our cultural and economic lives.
I hope the efforts can be redirected to broader and more effective addiction support networks that include hard drugs and cannabis. I hope the unsafe driving efforts will be addressed by staffing our traffic enforcement back to pre-covid levels and to target repeat drunk drivers more aggressively. I hope Oregon and Washington will continue to lead in providing some of the best healthcare access in the United States that includes coverage for addiction support of all kinds.
My apologies to my friends who have affection for beakers. I have a measured appreciation for them too.
